Hydrological Drought and Time Series Analysis: A Case Study of the Zarrinehrood Basin

Rahimi Kakehjub, Soroush; Rezaie, Hossein; Khalili, Keivan; Nazeri Tahroudi, Mohammad

doi:10.22077/jwhr.2024.7126.1122

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ MSc Student, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

² Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

³ Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22077/jwhr.2024.7126.1122

Abstract

Drought is a significant aspect of Iran's climate, affecting both dry and wet regions. This study examines the river flow data from four hydrometric stations in the Zarrinehrood Basin (Dareh-Panbedan (DP), Pol-Anian (PA), Sonateh and Nezamabad) to analyze and forecast hydrological drought in the present and future periods, considering the impact of climate change. Additionally, the study aims to account for and mitigate the dam's effect on one of the studied stations. The analysis of river flow changes at the studied stations indicated a decreasing trend over the study period. To predict the hydrological drought index for the study area, the SDI index was utilized for reference periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months, along with climate change predictors derived from the CanESM2 climate model as outlined in the fifth IPCC report. The CARMA model and climate predictors were employed to simulate and forecast river flow for future periods. The results of the CARMA model investigation for simulating river flow in the test phase indicate that the error value at DP station is 4.07, at PA station is 6.46, at Sonateh station is 4.07, and at Nezamabad station is 70.14 cubic meters per second. These findings suggest that the hydrological drought in the studied basin is expected to worsen in the coming years.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Water resources management

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Hydrological Drought and Time Series Analysis: A Case Study of the Zarrinehrood Basin

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Volume 6, Issue 2September 2023Pages 183-194

Volume 6, Issue 2
September 2023
Pages 183-194